專欄 (69er@FA) Colon離去 大都會有更多子彈簽Cespedes

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明年就要44歲老投手Bartolo Colon與勇士簽一年約,這代表,大都會有更多子彈可以帶回明星外野手Yoenis Cespedes,根據《紐約郵報》專欄作家Kevin Kernan推測,大都會可能會提一張4年1億1200萬美元合約。

 

不管是ESPN專欄作家Keith Law的50大自由球員榜,MLBTR網站的50大自由球員排名,Sporting News網站的155名自由球員評比或是Yahoo!網站專欄作家Jeff Passan的自由球員完全攻略,都是將外野手Yoenis Cespedes列為狀元,這種無異議的看法,也突顯了YC的價值。

 

先看看Keith Law對於Yoenis Cespedes評價與分析內容:

 

By opting out of the remaining two years of his contract, Cespedes leaves nearly $48 million on the table but seems likely to get more than that on a longer-term deal as the offseason's best free agent (in a terrible class, of course).

 

Cespedes has really remade himself as a player, or at least seems to have done so, becoming far more selective in 2016 without losing any other aspect of his game. He posted his best walk rate ever, yet his strikeout rate and power didn't budge at all. The Mets asked him to play a lot of center field, even though he's incapable of coming within spitting distance of average out there, so his total-value stats, such as WAR, are misleading. He's not going to play center for a smart club in 2017, and that negative defensive value he posted in center will just go away.

 

Put him in right field, where he'll have average range and help you with his plus arm, and even if his newfound patience means a .340 OBP instead of .320, with his 30-homer power he's going to profile as a 4-5 win player. The market might overpay him because he's the best there is, and you're buying into his mid-30s, but four years and $80-90 million would probably give you a good overall return, even if the market wants to pay him $25-30 million per year instead.

 

Yoenis Cespedes本季WAR值才2.9是有點誤導,這主要來自於大都會於球季時要YC守中外野,YC的防守範圍並不大,守了中外野反而會降低YC的WAR值,若是單純以YC棒上功夫來計算,Keith Law認為YC的WAR值應在4-5左右,大都會連兩季打入季後賽,去年更殺進世界大賽,這位古巴巨砲貢獻的火力居功厥偉,這也是大都會很有意願帶回YC。

 

要提Yoenis Cespedes的狀況,不得不回顧一下去年FA市場的狀況,當時,國民提了一張5年1億1000萬美元合約在YC面前,只是,這張合約包括了為數不少金額延遲付款,這等於削弱了這張1.1億美元合約的實際價值。

 

大都會這時候出奇兵,提了一張3年7500萬美元合約,該合約裡還包括兩次逃脫重測FA市場的權利,Yoenis Cespedes會接受這張較短的3年合約,主要考慮到今年FA市場先發投手相對比較弱,那麼,30隊的錢將會集中在買回棒子上面。

 

Yoenis Cespedes陣營的預測也很準確,YC本季只打132場仍有31轟與8成84攻擊指數OPS,YC再測FA市場也如預測獲得第一名的位置,YC再測FA市場主要逼大都會不得不端出一張長合約來留人。

 

先看看Yoenis Cespedes之前那張三年7500萬美元合約,這等於將YC定位為平均年薪AAV為2500萬美元,雖未達頂級3000萬美元,但也是次一級的球星身價,而站在大都會的立場,去年第一次與Yoenis Cespedes合作,還無法下定決心給一張上億美元合約,今年,大都會最低潮時就是YC進傷兵名單的期間,等到YC重回打線,大都會才在九月靠著YC的棒子搶下一張季後賽門票。


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69er

1.1994年在自立晚報出道採訪中華職棒 2.2000年服務TVBS周刊,9月到職就做了911專題 3.2001年出了“棒球之子”一書 4.2003年愚人節開始在ETtoday.com體育組服務,10月推出“決戰亞洲”專頁,迎接11月...

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