專欄 (69er@太空人) 新球季勝場數 只略遜小熊與道奇

level | | 人氣 3458

A- A+

太空人補強動作很快,先發投手,外野手與捕手三大重點,在一周內全部完成,根據fangraphs網站預測2017年球季顯示,太空人明年可望是90勝72敗成績,只略遜小熊94勝與道奇92勝。

 

太空人先在FA市場上,用兩年1400萬美元帶回傷癒復出的先發投手Charlie Morton,接下來再用4年5200萬美元簽下外野手Josh Reddick,由於JR在ESPN專欄作家Keith Law每年FA Top 50榜名列第9,算是排名很前面,而且明年才30歲,算是一張低風險合約,先看看Keith Law對於Josh Reddick的評析:

 

Reddick seemed destined for a big free-agent contract early in 2016, even in spite of a month-long DL stint in June for a broken hand, but a horrendous performance in August (.194 BABIP!) really dragged his season line down to where he was just slightly above-average overall as a hitter. He still made plenty of contact over the summer after coming back from the injury, but it wasn't quality contact. Even in September, he found success by hitting the ball on the ground more often rather than hitting for power.

 

He's no longer a defensive asset in a corner, although I'd be willing to bet he could be average with some positioning help. The real question is whether he can hit for average power going forward, 20-odd homers, which would imply that the power outage in 2016 was a result of the hand injury -- a reasonable suspicion. So are you buying the Reddick of the first two months of the season, figuring his hand strength will be back once he's 10 months past the injury? That version was probably headed for three years and $16-18 million per year, maybe more years, given that he'll play at age 30 in 2017, but his inconsistency this year and history of low OBPs might lower the market.

漫畫大師Stan Lee(左)與Josh Reddick(Getty Images)

 

在Keith Law眼中,Josh Reddick打擊與長程火砲都在,守備價值可能不高,但仍可望在FA市場要到一張平均年薪為1600萬美元至1800萬美元的4800萬美元至5400萬美元三年約,而太空人加碼了第4年保證約,雖然拉低了平均年薪AAV,但是,JR未來4年可以不擔心工作在哪裡專心打球。

 

增加一年保證約並拉低AAV,這與藍鳥用3年約帶回本季30轟的長打好手Kendrys Morales有異曲同功之妙,否則,藍鳥怎可能會讓超級經紀人Scott Boras早早簽字呢?用兩年約簽KM最安全,而藍鳥順勢加了一年保證約搶人,讓季後補強不會夜長夢多,陷入非常被動的處境。

 

Charlie Morton在Top 50榜裡只排第24名,要不是球季第4場先發登板受傷提早結束,否則,在Keith Law眼裡,CM是評價只輸給Rich Hill與Jeremy Hellickson(已接受費城人1720萬美元合格報價),也因為這個傷,費城人拒絕執行CM於2017年950萬美元優續權,CM那張合約裡有500萬美元激勵獎金,只要CM連兩季都能有30場先發登板,那等於太空人給的是950萬美元平均年薪,也賺到一名實力能扛第3號先發投的好手。

 

看一下Keith Law如何評價Charlie Morton:

 

Morton made three-plus starts for the Phillies in April before blowing out his hamstring in start No. 4, ending his season, which is a shame because he looked as if he was a completely new pitcher -- throwing harder than ever and getting batters to pound the ball into the ground. A full season like that would have netted him $15 million a year on a multiyear deal, but he didn't get the chance to show he could sustain that stuff and I expect some caution even in a marketplace short on decent starters. He has a better resume going into 2017 than Rich Hill had going into 2016, and I'd give Morton two years on a bet that at least some of the uptick was real.


關於作者 / 作者更多文章 成為粉絲
69er

1.1994年在自立晚報出道採訪中華職棒 2.2000年服務TVBS周刊,9月到職就做了911專題 3.2001年出了“棒球之子”一書 4.2003年愚人節開始在ETtoday.com體育組服務,10月推出“決戰亞洲”專頁,迎接11月...

slice

你可能有興趣的文章

目前共有 0 則留言

回應文章請先「登入加入會員」,歡迎使用 facebook login 快速登入。 (為何鼓勵登入留言 ) 凡本站會員都有個人頁記錄留言,方便您可隨時查看您在哪些文章有留言,以及版主或其他讀者給您的回覆,讓您不會錯過任何一個與運動同好們互動交流的機會。

專題探討

2016球員異動觀測站

棒球入冬,依舊暗潮洶湧,自由市場各隊角力,無約大咖落腳何處?球星交易何時啟動?戰力分析全看這裡!

我們就愛 休士頓太空人 隊

最新文章留言

Back to Top