專欄 [大麥] Sho-Time 從數據解讀,為什麼全世界都在期待大谷翔平的極致表現?

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小聯盟 王大麥 | 2018/04/06

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先在球季開幕戰擔任DH,小試身手的繳出5支1。接著回到主場開幕戰後連兩戰開轟,第二轟還是棒打賽揚名投Cory Kluber。不禁讓人想問這位日本貝比魯斯的極限究竟何在?

 

 

Shohei Ohtani yesterday: 

104.5 mph home run 
100.6 mph single
112.8 mph single 

Shohei Ohtani today:
400-foot HR off Corey Kluber
29.8 ft/sec sprint speed
104.0 mph single off  Cody Allen

Decent couple of days.

在主場開幕戰時,根據statcast大谷的首轟三分砲(面對Josh Tomlin的74mph偏高曲球)擊球初速高達104.5mph、攻擊仰角26度。猛打賞在內的三支安打初速均破100mph。更誇張的是擊出第二轟的那一場面對Kluber的那發兩分彈(中間偏外角92mph四縫線)是直接挑戰中外野大牆的。

 

另外這個圖表是 sprint speed 2017年度的排序,大麥節錄如下:

Top 2017 Sprint Speed by baserunners
30.2 feet per second -- Byron Buxton
30.1 feet per second -- Billy Hamilton
29.9 feet per second -- Bradley Zimmer
29.7 feet per second -- Dee Gordon/Amed Rosario
29.6 feet per second -- Delino DeShields
29.5 feet per second -- Raimel Tapia/Franchy Cordero/Keon Broxton
29.3 feet per second -- Manuel Margot/Rajai Davis/Yoan Moncada/Mallex Smith/Adam Engel

我想顯而易見的大谷的sprint speed也是頂級的水準29.8ft/sec可以入榜空降到第四名。拜科技日新月異之賜,我們不只可以從球探的評價之中了解到這位百年的第一人的能耐到哪裡。甚至可以從球場追蹤系統提供給我們的即時統計數據去評判每個play的關鍵之處。

Pitching grades: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Splitter: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 70

Hitting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 70 | Run: 65 | Arm: 80 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

Long considered the best player in the world not affiliated with a Major League organization, Ohtani sparked interest from virtually every club when he announced his intention to come to the United States for the 2018 season. He made the decision despite changes in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that limited his bonus; under the old CBA, he likely would have commanded a contract worth more than $200 million. Known as the Babe Ruth of Japan, Ohtani is a two-way star determined to both hit and pitch in the big leagues. Though he was limited in 2017 by a right ankle injury that required surgery in October, he was Japan's Pacific League MVP when fully healthy the year before. In 2016, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and 174 strikeouts in 140 innings while batting .322/.416/.588 with 22 homers in 104 games. He took many by surprise when he signed with the Angels for $2,315,000 in December.

 

The scouting reports on Ohtani as a pitcher almost seem too good to be true. He threw the fastest recorded pitch in Japanese history (102.5 mph in 2016), sits in the upper 90s with late finish on his heater and maintains premium velocity into the late innings. Both his diving splitter, which reaches the low 90s, and his hard slider, which climbs into the high 80s, can be plus-plus pitches at their best. He also employs a curveball and a changeup that are at least average. Though he has an athletic frame and repeatable delivery, his walk rate (3.3 per nine innings) was ordinary in Japan. There was some concern about an elbow issue reported after he signed, and he did receive a plasma injection in October, though the Angels were not overly worried.While the consensus among scouts is that Ohtani has more upside as a pitcher, he also has the tools to be a star as a hitter. He has top-of-the-scale raw power and launches tape-measure shots with ease from the left side of the plate. He struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances in Japan, so he doesn't project as a .300 hitter, but he could bat .270 with 30-plus homers per year. He's also a well-above-average runner, though his speed has yet to translate into stolen bases. He has a cannon arm and should be at least an average defender in right field. He can DH with the Angels, which will allow him to get more at-bats and conserve energy for pitching.

 

我們來閱讀一下這份球探報吿,要知道在評分表裡50就是聯盟平均的水準,一個Benchmark的概念。也就是説只要綜合評價高於50,其在球探的心目之中就是一個可擺入先發的即戰力(不是指Replacement Level)。

 

先讓我們看一下以下這兩個選手能力指標的對照圖表!

先看第一張最左側就是個項目之評價總分大谷以打者身份點評overall是60。也就是超越0.260~0.270打擊率,外帶15~18轟的標準(此為2017球季聯盟打者平均水準)。可以看到大谷在投打的每個tool都是高於聯盟平均的,尤其打擊端的power跟arm這兩個項目分別有80與70的高分。我想這並不讓人意外由其臂力這部分,他在火腿隊時期多半擔也有擔任右外野的守備工作(傳球距離比左外野手長,尤其經常需要回傳三壘與本壘)。

 

再者本壘到一壘的跑速,在日職時期,大谷平均已能跑進3.9秒內。這對左打者來說已是極致頂標!如同本站前輩尤金大所提,大谷就是一個三刀流的奇才,著實一點也不過譽!

 

 

 

再來我們看看一向評價優於打擊端的投球又是怎麼樣的景況!先看overall評價是到了70,有就是說他普遍被認為是輪值前段一、二號先發的料!直球更是獲得頂標的評價(均速97mph)。但其更為人稱道的其實是與一般投手球速相近的快速指叉球(SFF),動輒上看90mph。

 

 

 

棒球古諺有云:「球速每多快一公里,就像是多了一種變化球。」這樣的普遍概念,大麥認為其有就是指涉球速夠也就能夠讓投手的變化球發揮威力(尤其是變速球)。但大谷的快速指叉球不只有速差,更可怕的是還帶著誇張的垂直位移軌跡(據統計最大可以到20吋以上)。

 

 

我想我們這個年代有大谷存在是幸福的,對於全世界的球迷來說皆是如此。就讓我們看看這位世界的二刀流能夠將其潛能發揮到什麼樣的驚艷程度吧!

 

___________________________________________

給同時喜歡棒球與財金領域的讀者~

有興趣可以瀏覽一下大麥的粉專!並參與討論及互動!

大麥的財金與棒球哲學隨筆

___________________

參考資料:

1. mlb.com

2.Baseball Reference

3.Ace Sports 

 


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